Forget Trump’s tariffs. The biggest story in container shipping isn’t what’s happening at America’s ports. It’s what’s happening everywhere else.
In the first quarter of 2026, the global container market grew 4.4% despite the Strait of Hormuz being shut, fresh war in the Middle East, and Cape of Good Hope sailings now stretching east-west trade to breaking point. But underneath the headlines, the trade map is being redrawn.
Greater China’s container exports to the United States fell 1.8 million TEU in 2025, and Container Trades Statistics is forecasting a similar net loss this year. Southeast Asia has picked up around a million TEU of that lost volume, but a net 800,000 boxes a year are now simply not going to America. China hasn’t slowed down. It has redirected. In Q1 2026, Sub-Saharan Africa imports were up 33% on the same quarter a year earlier. South and Central America up 17%. India up 17%. These are the trades that will define container shipping for the rest of the decade.
To make sense of where the container market is actually heading, Mike King is joined by Nigel Pusey, CEO of Container Trades Statistics (CTS) and a 30-year veteran of Maersk Line and P&O Nedlloyd. CTS produces the most comprehensive dataset in container shipping, drawing about 75% of its data direct from the lines’ own manifests and invoices.
In this episode, produced with the support of Dimerco Express Group, Mike and Nigel cover:
- Why the Greater China-to-US trade is in decline and what’s filled part of the gap
- How Vietnam absorbed half of the Southeast Asia growth into the US, with Thailand taking about a third and Cambodia 10-15%
- Why Far East to Europe imports surged 15% in Q1 2026, and whether it’s genuine demand or defensive stockpiling
- The widening Asia-Europe imbalance, now 3.5 boxes inbound for every box out, and what it means for European manufacturing
- How the Strait of Hormuz crisis is reshaping container flows, with Saudi Red Sea ports and trans-desert land bridges emerging as the new winners
- Why the Cape of Good Hope routing looks increasingly permanent and why Suez may not reopen this year
- The container trades primed to keep growing through 2027 and beyond
- Why peak season may not happen this year, and what oil prices could do to global demand
- Why intra-Asia trade, the world’s biggest container market at over 50 million TEU, keeps motoring
If you buy, sell, plan or move freight, this is one of the clearest reads on where the container market is actually heading.
Special thanks to Dimerco Express Group for supporting this episode of The Freight Buyers’ Club. Find out more about their transpacific, Asia logistics and tariff compliance services at https://dimerco.com/
Notes:
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Watch here: https://youtu.be/POyM0kHGMeg
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